Nifty moving out towards 5400

I think its time for me to eat my own words. As wrote by me in the previous post wherein I quoted that breaking past 5250 looks quiet impossible for Nifty seems to be going wrong. Nifty might break past 5200 and have a go at 5400 wherein lies the 200 days SMA (Simple moving average). The change of attitude is due to the moments in the Dow Industrial average which has just tested the 200 days SMA (Simple moving average). Leaving apart the Hangseng index of the Hongkong, all the other world stock  markets seem to be moving out of the rangebound movements they experienced in last 3 months. But any chance above 5400 seems quiet dim this year. On the other hand its quiet likely that Nifty might still not break past 5200, but it’s the least probable scenario. So then how to trade?

Nifty 5000 PE (Put European) Option quoting at 52/- while Nifty 5400 CE (Call European) quoting at 47/- could be bought in a pair making a cost of around 100/-. If the Nifty hits 5400 in the next 5-7 days, 5400 CE could be sold out at 130 or so, this is because Nifty 5200 CE (Call European) is currently quoting at 139, if Nifty moves up by 200 points, 5400 could be at strike and could be fetching around 130. At that point 5400 CE could be sold off and we could wait for the Nifty to yet again correct by some 200 points and Nifty 5000 PE then could be sold off at around 30/-. The whole deal could fetch you more than 50% returns in just a matter of half a month.

On the other hand if Nifty breaks down by 200 points then it would be ideal to square off Nifty 5000 PE at around 100/- and wait for Nifty to bounce yet again at 5200 so that Nifty 5200 CE could fetch around 25/- the whole deal could yet again fetch 25% returns. Lastly if nothing of this sort happens the premium might drop by some 13-17 Rs in the next 8 days, at which point it would be an exit point with around 20% negative returns.

 The 20 days Simple moving average (20 days SMA) and 50 days Simple moving average (50 days SMA) for Nifty stand at 4977 and 4997 respectively. The 50 days SMA is above the 50 days SMA and the 100 days SMA which is at 5253.

Nifty is most likely to maintain above 20 days SMA for a minimum 7-8 days while breaking past 100 days SMA  i.e above 5250 also seems impossible. Not the right time to buy Nifty options, its better to let the market hit 5200 first.

Investment in BSEL Infrastructure can double your money

As can be seen from the chart BSEL Infrastructure deflated from 55 to below 10, investors who bought in at 55 suffered a loss of above 80% if they exited the stock at below 10 Rs. The misery of the investors who bought in at the all time high of above 118 and are still holding it could not be expressed in words. Anyways after hitting a level of below 10 Rs, the return on investment given by the stock to first time investors who bought in March 2009 beat the return on investment which the index gave. Loss from 55 to below 10 stands at above 40 and when the stock traded at 28 in June 2009 it covered 50% of this loss. The Stock again traded in the red and almost gave away its 50% value to trade at 15 in July 2009. The stock has traded between the levels of 15 to 23 from that point onwards.

You can notice from the chart that the stock which saw a accelerated deflation of prices from 22 to 17 and 19 to 15 is slowly losing it momentum. While deflation in prices from 22 to 17, 19 to 16 took place in matter of days, A move from 17 to 15 , consumed much more time then the first three downmoves, the stock seems to taking support at 15 Rs levels and might hit 19 which would be our target 1, 23 our next target 2 in a matter of days. Since the June 2009 top of 28 has not been tested that levels could be our last target.