Friday, June 27, 2008

Real Reason for Crude Spike

The real reason for the spike in crude is 'FED Printing press which is printing dollars' since there are more number of dollars printed hence a drop in value of a dollar which makes the asset denominated in dollars cheaper. And in turn to maintain the real value of the asset (in demand) denominated in dollars the asset price moves up. Since Crude was considerably less priced , yah because while the stock markets in Emerging market space and also most other commodities have multiplied by 6-7 times there 2002 - 2003 lows when they reached there 2008 highs, the crude which was more than 35 dollars in 1981 itself, while as low as 23 dollars in 2002 was lagging behind, and also since most analyst uptil somedays back were saying that China will grow above 10 - 11% followed by India which too would be growing 8 - 9%, hence it was assumed the demand for Crude in India and China, which meant that crude was an asset in demand and hence chased from 120 - 140 in a matter of few days. Now Since the FED has stopped the printing press somewhat (because the rate cuts have stopped, but accepting junks from investment banks as collateral for lending treasuries is a still a way of printing money) the crude is in a phase of distrubution, If the FED continues to hold rates at 2% for more 2-3 months, while the Central Banks in Emerging markets say India, China keep on rising rates and also decrease the subsidy on Crude Oil then the Crude might start a Correction.