Monday, February 23, 2009

Inflating the Inflation, Deflating the Deflation

The Dow Jones Index which was close to 1000 in 1982, topped in 2007 at above 14000 i.e. it inflated 14 times in 28 years and in the current Depression (not yet official), has corrected about 50% and is currently trading close to 50% down from life time highs, Now the Brazilian Index Bovespa which was trading close to 5000 in 1994 topped out at 74000 in 2008 i.e. it inflated much faster than Dow Jones, but now it is currently trading near to 40000 after hitting 29000 in October i.e. it has not deflated as fast as Dow Jones, and still recently one Citigroup Analyst maintained a target of above 50,000 for Bovespa for year end and said that he would be buyer at 35000, All in all the analysts are fooling the world to believe that the inflated, ponzi scheme index called Bovespa is a buy, just like the S&P fooled the world by upgrading Bovespa as investment grade when it was trading at close to 72000, so that speculators could distribute there holdings.

Now let’s have a look at the Composition of Dow Jones and the Inflation, Deflation therein

Walmart which a penny stock and trading at 0.06 in 1972, had a lifetime high of close to 70 and almost giving returns like a ponzi scheme, was inflated more than 1000 times in just 36 years, the stock is currently trading close to 50 and is outperforming the Dow Jones Index.

Microsoft trading at 0.1 in 1986 hit a lifetime high of 60, It was a multibagger stock inflating more than 500 times in just 14 years

Similarly Mcdonald inflated from 0.3 in 1970’s to all time high of 60, inflating 200 times in just 36 years, HP inflated more than 500 times from 0.14 to above 77, Intel inflated more than 200 times from 0.35 to above 75 in just 14 years.

On the other hand Bank of America which inflated not more than 10 times from about 6.5 to 55 in 10 years is trading close to 4 after hitting 2.6 recently. Similar story could be said about Citigroup, JP Morgan, GM, GE, all this stocks are the ones who have beaten down hardly inspite of not inflating.

Now coming to my Indian Sensex, Leaving out the ponzi scheme Satyam which had inflated more than 500 times from 1994 to 2000, obviously on inflated earnings, and whose fraud came into light, The other Inflated Stocks Infosys, Reliance, Bharti Airtel, BHEL are still outperforming the Sensex.

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