Monday, February 9, 2009

Now that since I am concluding by my Technical Analysis that Sensex should hit 12.3k and trade above that by Mid March which concludes Nifty Should be trading above 3600 by Mid March, so lets check if the Nifty Components have enough strength to Pull the Nifty above 3600

Reliance currently trading close to 1400, weightage in Nifty 12%, 1650 – 1690 looks at the max possible on the counter, which transpires into close to 20% gains from current position, so Reliance can add at the max 2.4% gains to the Nifty

ONGC currently trading at close to 710, weightage in Nifty 8.35%, anything above 780 – 800 looks far fetched on the counter, so ONGC can add about 1% to the Nifty

Bharti which is trading close to 660 at this moment has a weightage of close to 7% on the Nifty, 750 – 780 looks the best possible for the counter, which transpires in Bharti adding 1.2% to the Nifty

NTPC which is trading close to 183 right now, has a weightage of close to 8.5% on the Nifty, 190 which the counter touched 4-5 days earlier is a strong resistance, breaking which 220 looks possible, but 220 takes it into a bull market, while the whole Emerging Markets Space looks as it is in Great Depression, also NTPC has not closed at or nearby 112 after touching it in October 2008, anyhow for our purpose let say at 210 - 220 it will add 1.5% to the Nifty

BHEL currently trading close to 1415, commands a weightage of close to 3.75%, anything above 1600 looks overstretched on the counter, hence BHEL can add 0.5% to the Nifty

Infosys trading close to 1310, the counter can bounce max up to 1550, With a weightage of above 4%, the counter can add 0.6% to the Nifty

SBI trading close to 1180, an ask price of 1400 on the counter is possible, while very few chances of the counter touching 1600 look possible, with a weightage of above 4%, At 1400 the counter would add 0.6% to the Nifty

Uptil Now close to 50% of weightage is consumed and close to 8% could be added to the Nifty, Lets see how the counters commanding 2-3% Weightage look

HDFC with a weightage of 2.38% and currently trading close to 1540, looks overstretched above 1900, so it can add 0.5% to the Nifty

HDFC Bank with a weightage of 2.22% is trading currently at close to 950, 1100 or at the best 1200 is possible on the counter, which transpires in gains of 0.5%

TCS currently ruling at close to 515 command a weightage of close to 2.75%, can head up to 650 or 670, adding into 0.6% to the Nifty

Wipro trading close to 225 and commanding weightage 1.8% can head upto 300, transpiring into gains of 0.6% to the Nifty

Sail currently trading at 88 with a weightage 2% can have an ask price of at the best 115, which adds in 0.7% to the Nifty

RPL trading close to 88 with a weightage of 2.17% looks poised for 105 at the best, adding up 0.4% gains to the Nifty

Hence HDFC, HDFC Bank, Wipro, TCS, Sail, RPL which combined have 15% weightage can add upto 2.5% to the Nifty

HLL and ITC have combine wieghtage of close to 7.5% and have all time highs about 20 – 25% above from there Current Market Price, lets hope they trade 10-15% higher from here, transpiring into about 1% gains for the Nifty

So this 14 Scrips with 72 – 75% weightage in between them can add upto 12% gains for the Nifty, now that Nifty is trading close to 2950 and target is above 3600 transpires into 22-23% gains for the Nifty from current level, implying that the remaining 36 counters with combines weightage of 25% between them have to post close to 10% Gains for the Nifty, Again RCOM and DLF are making new lows each and every time Nifty Corrects and have weightage of about 3.5% between them, So all in all ICICI Bank, Relinfra, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Suzlon, Hindalco, Idea, Sterlite which have beared the most brunt of the collapse would have to post big gains for the Nifty to trade above 3600.

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