How could the Sensex / Nifty trade

Bullish, Bearish or Consolidation, What lies in the future?

Sensex which closed just above 8K on March 9, has closed above 15.4k on June 10 that is a whopping close to 100% gains, so should we consider that the brief Bear Market is over and we have started a New Bull Market yet again, well if history is the precedent than not, because the biggest small time gains that come by investing in equities or equity indices are in a bear market, well so how could the Sensex trade in Near and Long term Future, there are three options
1) Start of a New bull Market
2) Consolidation which would ultimately breakout on the downside
3) Immediate Breakdown of the Indices
I don’t think that the Market would be consolidating and then breaking on the upside

Lets Elaborate on all the Three

If Sensex breaks past 16.1K (which would mean Nifty breaking past 4830), I would be of the opinion that the bear market is all over and we are set for a new bull market, I would advice to long the Market but via Long Term Nifty Options, I would say purchase Nifty 4500 CE Dec 2011 Expiry Contract which could be bought @ 1100 or 1150, if Sensex once again breaks below 15.6K then the position should be hedged if you could not liquidate it at a fair price as Dec 2011 expiry contracts are not liquid.
Now coming to the second option if Nifty is consolidating and reaches close to 4800 I would say buy Nifty Near Month Puts with a strike close to 4800 and exit if Nifty breaks past 4830
The third Scenario would be that if Nifty breaks down below 4350 I would be readying myself for a long term Bear Market and would advice to buy Nifty 4000 PE Dec 2011 Expiry which could be available close to 500/- the stoploss in this case could be placed if Nifty trades above 4430
I would be updating the Long term Targets in the Near Future as of Now I feel that Nifty might close at 4500 or at 3000 on 31 st Dec 2009