Thursday, November 12, 2009

Where is the DOW headed now?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average after hitting a bottom just below 6.5k in March 2009 is now trading up above 10K, a whopping gain of 50% for all those who bought in at 6.5K, so what could be the next move, would it up or would it breakdown yet again, is this the correction to the major downtrend that saw the Dow Jones loose more than 55% of its value in a matter of 1 ½ year between October 2007 to March 2009 or is it just a building phase of the new bull market, Lets delve into the history and look, the DOW started its most bullish phase in 1995 at 4K’s and ended it at 12K in 2000, although the DOW managed to break past 12K in 2006 we cant call this a new bull market because it just satyed above 12k for a year and then even broke the 2002 bottom, so all in all the 2000 – 2008 could be called timewise correction for the bull market from 1980 – 2000, The Dow after cutting about 7.5k points from 14k to 6.5k has added about 3.8K points to trade at 10.3K that is it cut 50% of the fall which could be still called a correction, at the same time it reached the lower trough of the trading range of 10 -12K where it traded in 2000 – 2002, and 10 – 11 K trading range of 2004 – 2006, now this lower tough of about 10K which acted as a support that time could be the resistance this time round, so the level of 10K should be watched, also the markets don’t go down or go up in straight fashion they always tend to test the bottoms as well as the tops and for that matter the bottom at 6.5k has not been tested so could it be that the markets will break again and move down, lets keep our finger crossed and see what happens.

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