How to trade index and stock options of December expiry?

DLF seems to be quite bearish as the real sector seems to have lost favor with the investors, inspite of property prices not dropping to a bigger extent in India as compared to the globe. But would the downtrend achieve its target in short frame of time, to give profits on investment in put options, DLF could trade at 310 and if possible dip to 260 by the year end, with a stoploss at 372, a short sell position could be initiated in this stock, if 310 is considered to be the target the risk reward ratio doesn’t justify disinvestment in DLF, the option contracts of december expiry seem to be quite expensive as the 310 PA is trading at close to 9.5 Rs, the strike price 310 is more than 11% out of the money and the premium stands at close to 3% of the Last Traded Price of the stock.

ONGC is another stock whose charts give a feeling that distribution is underway, should the stock not have bidders above the price of 1190 and generate enough sell orders to have bid prices even below 1120, the stock prices could weaken further and by the year end a bid price of 972 on the stock could find a place in the best 5 buy orders, so keeping a stoploss of 1190 the stock could be sold and the square order could be 1000 or below. The options on the underlying stock dont attract traders and as such is hugely illiquid, The December expiry contract with a strike price of 1050 which has the last traded price of 12.25 is trading at a fair value, if the downside target of 972 turns out be the Last Traded Price for the stock on any day upto 31st December, the 1050 PA could be offsetted at 80 Rs/-, close to 500% return on investment, The lot size of the contract is 225, so the total cost of investment stands at below 3000/-

NTPC just like ONGC is in a distribution phase, if the stock continuously attracts supply from the distributors so that there is no bid for the stock at a price of 209 which is just 0.5% away from the current close, or if this seems to be a quite close call, the best buy order on the stock, if it is not able to surplus 213 then the scarcity of the buyers might see an investor bidding on the stock for just above 190 or even 182 by the year end. The December expiry Put Option on the stock for the strike price of 200 was last trade at 2.5, which is a fair price if the stock opens without change on Monday, the investment of 4000 as the lot size of the contract is 1600 and can make the investor double happier as the investment could return double the initial investment if the scarcity of the bidders see the price plummet to our initial target of 192.

Options on Stocks are illiquid, hence utmost care should be taken while executing them, I am advising mostly sell as the Nifty looks to be in a distribution phase, after the initial euphoria which saw the index give more than 75% return to the investor who invested at March 2009 low which was the testing of the October 2008 low, the velocity of bullishness is decreasing although the index is making new highs after the smaller corrections of 5-12%, so the index might (if the history repeats itself) atleast correct 50% of the March 2009 to the October 2010 gains, 50% of 2500 to 5200 stands at 1350 which means investors might bid for the stocks composing the index in such a way that the Nifty Index on the trading terminal reflects the value of Nifty to be at 3850 in the coming time, The stocks composing Nifty index could not find sufficient investors bidding at higher prices and the stock market had to be closed for 1 hour in May 2004 due to the index hitting lower circuit, the lack of investors bidding saw the history repeat itself in May 2006 and January 2008, could we have one now again or in January 2010. If the investors don’t bid the stocks composing the Nifty index in such a way that Nifty trades above 4988 (or 5200 the next stoploss) then the deficiency of buyers in the stocks composing the Nifty index could see the index trade at 3850 by the year end or the first month of the next year.

Correlation between Stock Market and Currency

I had mentioned in my earlier post http://niftywhatcanhappen.blogspot.com/2009/11/stock-market-and-currency-movement.html that we would analyze how Deflation in Japan had an effect on the Japanese Currency Yen, so here it is.

The Japanese Nikkei traded at 2000 in 1971, at that time 30 Japanese Yen sufficed to buy 1 US Dollar, by 1990 the Japanese Nikkei went to trade at 40,000 but now you must be expecting that the 30 Japanese Yen invested could buy more than 1 US Dollar, contrary 158 Japanese Yen were required to buy 1 US Dollar, that means the theory that strong growth lead to strong returns on investment in stock markets which leads to strong currency are completely wrong, as when the Japanese stock market gave 2000% return on investment in the period between 1970 to 1990 for an foreign investor, the Japanese yen cut 500% from that investment, now when the Japanese Nikkei reached its life time high in 1990, the Japanese Yen too reached its lowest against the Dollar in 1990, When the Nikkei went on to trade at 15000 in 1994 i.e when it was losing more than 50% of its lifetime high, 84 Japanese Yen were enough to buy 1 US Dollar, i.e while the Nikkei was losing value, the appreciation in Japanese Yen saw to it that a foreign investor was loosing money at a smaller pace than the domestic investor, Cut to 2008 – 2009 when most of the Emerging Market Currencies are loosing there value against the US Dollar while the Stock Markets are appreciating, It is the Japanese Yen which has reached its 15 year high against the US Dollar while the Nikkei is taking drubbing.

Now let’s see the correlation between the Dow Jones with the US Dollar and Nikkei with the Yen. Dow Jones traded at close to 1000 in 1970 and by 1990 it traded at just 3000. But while the local investors in Japan can say that there Stock index gave more return on investment then their counterparts in United States (well that might also not stand true if real inflation adjusted return on investment is taken into consideration) this doesn’t stand true for the foreign investors because while in 1970 close to 70 US Dollars needed to be invested to buy 1 Japanese Nikkei (70*30 = 2000, the value of Nikkei), in 1990’s the number of US Dollars invested to buy 1 Japanese Nikkei stood at 250 (250*160 = 40,000) i.e in Dollar terms the Japanese Nikkei just appreciated 300% same as the US Dow Jones, so from an US investor perspective the return on investment which the Japanese Nikkei gave was the same as the Dow Jones in his own local markets was giving. Thus an investor doesn’t earn more money in investing in foreign assets as even if the foreign assets appreciate more than the local assets the inflation in the foreign country sees to it that the currency depreciates against the home country currency.

What drives the Stock Market up GROWTH or INFLATION?

Most of the Fundamental Analysts say that growth drives the prices of the Stocks up, is it right? Most of those Analysts said that a drop in the prices of Crude would help the market rally but when Crude prices were tanking most of the World Markets too were tanking, when the Crude fell to 33$ the Dow Jones Industrial Average was not at its life time high, neither the Asian Market Indices like Sensex (India), HangSeng, Shanghai Composite (China) were trading close to lifetime highs but were languishing close to more than 50% down from there lifetime highs and now that the prices of World Markets have improved, the Crude too has more than doubled in price.

A small query for all my readers, do you know the Stock Markets in the World that gave most returns?

Was it Bovespa which traded at 19K in 2000, 8K in 2003 and traded at 74K in 2008 a whopping return of 900% over 5 years, or was it the Sensex which traded at 6K in 2000, 2.3K in 2003 and went on to trade at 21K in 2008 again a handsome return of 800% in 5 years, And I have not forgot the Shanghai composite which was trading at 1.2K in 2006 and went on to trade above 6K in 2008 a return of 500% in just 2 years. But dear readers it seems you have forgot Zimbabwe where the unemployment rate is close to 80%, yes dear readers you have forgot Zimbabwe

According to

http://www.zimbabwemetro.com/finance/stock-exchange/zimbabwe-stock-exchange-market-capitalisation-reaches-us203-billion/

Zimbabwean Stock Market gained 300000%,

http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=12045

Says that Most shares gained 50,000% in one day

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/zimbabwe-stock-market-booms/2007/06/04/

Attributes a smaller return of 12,000% over a year to the Zimbabwean Stock Markets

So friends how come a Country whose employment rate is just 20% gives such handsome returns on investments in Stock Markets, It just due to the fact that the inflation there is running hot as you all know and that the biggest note there is 1 Billion (approx) and it can purchase a loaf of bread for you.

In my next post I will elaborate how Zimbabwe is not an exception but an example of the Contrarian Theory that the Inflation drives the Stock Markets and in a post after that why the US $ would not be sinking but gaining, Till then Take Care and try to beat the INFLATION.