Why Inspite of Financial Markets Crashing Gold has Stayed Up
When most of the financial markets in the World and even the Commodities especially Crude Oil had fell from 140$ to below 35$ why is it that the Gold is holding on, What could be the reason, do the investors believe that Helicopter Ben (i.e. Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke) will inflate the World by dropping cash and so it would be better to buy Gold and stay safe when Banks world over are going bankrupt, but instead of buying Paper Gold I feel investors should be buying Gold Coins, and have Physical Gold with them via Gold Coins, http://www.goldcoinsgain.com is one of the places from where you can purchase gold coins. http://www.goldcoinsgain.com also offers free Gold Guide, You can also contact http://www.goldcoinsgain.com through 1-800-940-7793, Analysis on how to trade Gold could be found on there website at http://www.goldcoinsgain.com/gold-market-analysts.html
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Sunday, June 21, 2009
Saturday, June 13, 2009
How could the Sensex / Nifty trade
Bullish, Bearish or Consolidation, What lies in the future?
Sensex which closed just above 8K on March 9, has closed above 15.4k on June 10 that is a whopping close to 100% gains, so should we consider that the brief Bear Market is over and we have started a New Bull Market yet again, well if history is the precedent than not, because the biggest small time gains that come by investing in equities or equity indices are in a bear market, well so how could the Sensex trade in Near and Long term Future, there are three options
1) Start of a New bull Market
2) Consolidation which would ultimately breakout on the downside
3) Immediate Breakdown of the Indices
I don’t think that the Market would be consolidating and then breaking on the upside
Lets Elaborate on all the Three
If Sensex breaks past 16.1K (which would mean Nifty breaking past 4830), I would be of the opinion that the bear market is all over and we are set for a new bull market, I would advice to long the Market but via Long Term Nifty Options, I would say purchase Nifty 4500 CE Dec 2011 Expiry Contract which could be bought @ 1100 or 1150, if Sensex once again breaks below 15.6K then the position should be hedged if you could not liquidate it at a fair price as Dec 2011 expiry contracts are not liquid.
Now coming to the second option if Nifty is consolidating and reaches close to 4800 I would say buy Nifty Near Month Puts with a strike close to 4800 and exit if Nifty breaks past 4830
The third Scenario would be that if Nifty breaks down below 4350 I would be readying myself for a long term Bear Market and would advice to buy Nifty 4000 PE Dec 2011 Expiry which could be available close to 500/- the stoploss in this case could be placed if Nifty trades above 4430
I would be updating the Long term Targets in the Near Future as of Now I feel that Nifty might close at 4500 or at 3000 on 31 st Dec 2009
Sensex which closed just above 8K on March 9, has closed above 15.4k on June 10 that is a whopping close to 100% gains, so should we consider that the brief Bear Market is over and we have started a New Bull Market yet again, well if history is the precedent than not, because the biggest small time gains that come by investing in equities or equity indices are in a bear market, well so how could the Sensex trade in Near and Long term Future, there are three options
1) Start of a New bull Market
2) Consolidation which would ultimately breakout on the downside
3) Immediate Breakdown of the Indices
I don’t think that the Market would be consolidating and then breaking on the upside
Lets Elaborate on all the Three
If Sensex breaks past 16.1K (which would mean Nifty breaking past 4830), I would be of the opinion that the bear market is all over and we are set for a new bull market, I would advice to long the Market but via Long Term Nifty Options, I would say purchase Nifty 4500 CE Dec 2011 Expiry Contract which could be bought @ 1100 or 1150, if Sensex once again breaks below 15.6K then the position should be hedged if you could not liquidate it at a fair price as Dec 2011 expiry contracts are not liquid.
Now coming to the second option if Nifty is consolidating and reaches close to 4800 I would say buy Nifty Near Month Puts with a strike close to 4800 and exit if Nifty breaks past 4830
The third Scenario would be that if Nifty breaks down below 4350 I would be readying myself for a long term Bear Market and would advice to buy Nifty 4000 PE Dec 2011 Expiry which could be available close to 500/- the stoploss in this case could be placed if Nifty trades above 4430
I would be updating the Long term Targets in the Near Future as of Now I feel that Nifty might close at 4500 or at 3000 on 31 st Dec 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
Election Results Out, What Further On
Finally election results are out and UPA Govt has won the Election and the hopes of a Stable Govt and also without the Communist support have driven the Sensex to above 14.2K with the first ever circuit breaker in its history, but shall it be able to remain aloof of the Global Markets and start a rally of its own, well I don’t feel so and have an opinion that 2004 is going to be replicated wherein we saw Sensex breaking down with a Circuit Breaker and creating its low not to be seen until now as we followed global trend and forgot everything else, so that might be the case just now too, we might just have a top in place after all the initial Euphoria regarding Stable Govt calms which might be as early as tomorrow, 14.3 – 14.4K, might be the first place to enter shorts with a stop of hardly 50 – 70 points, if triggered 14.6 – 14.7 K might be the next level to go short with a stop of again 50 – 70 points. If 14.8 K to breaks then well it might be a start of a new bull market, well but I believe that no new bull market is on cards and we might close the year at 10K or maybe even 6K cud be seen this year only with 11K coming by June itself. So I wud suggest to buy Nifty Puts of Dec 2009 Expiry and strike Price of 3600 or 4300 as long term trading strategy. Coming to short term strategy Nifty might test 3900 by this expiry so 4100 put option close to 60 might be a short term buy. Happy Trading
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